2010-03-01

Greenland Ice Loss Driven by Warming Seas. AFP, February 14, 2010. "Greenland's continent-sized icesheet is being significantly eroded by winds and currents that drive warmer water into fjords, where it carves out the base of coastal glaciers, according to studies [PDF, 7 pp] released on February 14. The icy mass sitting atop Greenland holds enough water to boost global sea levels by seven metres (23 feet), potentially drowning low-lying coastal cities and deltas around the world. At present, the ocean watermark is rising at around three millimetres (0.12 inches) per year, a figure that compares with 1.8mm (0.07 inches) annually in the early 1960s. But Greenland's contribution has more than doubled in the past decade, and scientists suspect climate change is largely to blame, although exactly how this is occurring is fiercely debated.

"Some theories point to air temperatures, which are rising faster in far northern latitudes than the global average. A rival idea is that shifting currents and subtropical ocean waters moving north are eroding the foundation of coastal glaciers, accelerating their slide into the sea, especially those inside Greenland's many fjords. Until now, however, these studies have been mainly based on mathematical models rather than observation. A team of scientists led by Fiammetta Straneo of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts set out to help fill that data void. Working off of a ship in July and September 2008, the researchers took detailed measurements of the water properties in the Sermilik Fjord connecting Helheim Glacier in eastern Greenland with the ocean. They found deep water streaming into the fjord was 3.0-4.0 degrees Celsius (37.4-39.2 degrees Fahrenheit), warm enough to cut into the base of the glaciers and hasten their plunge into the sea."

Science Blogger Finds Errors in Met Office Climate Change Records. By Hannah Devlin, The Times, February 16, 2010. "A science blogger has uncovered a catalogue of errors in Met Office records that form a central part of the scientific evidence for global warming. The mistakes, which led to the data from a large number of weather stations being discarded or misused, had been overlooked by professional scientists and were only discovered when the Met Office's Hadley Centre made data publicly available in December after the 'climategate' e-mail row. Although the errors do not alter the bigger picture on climate change, they have been seized upon as a further sign that scientific institutions have not been sufficiently transparent. 'It makes you wonder how many other problems there are in the data,' said John Graham-Cumming, the programmer who spotted the mistakes. 'The whole idea of doing science without releasing your data is quite worrying.' Since being alerted of the problems last month the Met Office has issued a corrected version of its land-based temperature record on its website."

Oceans' Acidity Rate is Soaring. By Steve Connor, The Independent, February 15, 2010. "The rate at which the oceans are becoming more acidic is greater today than at any time in tens of millions of years, according to a new study. Rapidly rising concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere mean that the rate of ocean acidification is the fastest since the age of the dinosaurs, which became extinct 65 million years ago, scientists believe. The oceans are likely to become so acidic in coming centuries that they will become uninhabitable for vast swathes of life, especially the little-studied organisms on the deep-sea floor which are a vital link in the marine food chain. Scientists have concluded, in a study published…in the journal Nature Geoscience, that the current rate of ocean acidification is up to 10 times faster than 55 million years ago -- the last time the deep oceans became so acidic. This is because of the speed at which carbon-dioxide concentrations are rising in the atmosphere. This carbon dioxide dissolves in seawater at the sea surface to form carbonic acid.

"The increased acidity of the water affects the amount of dissolved carbonate minerals that are available for marine organisms to use in forming their shells and hard skeletons. When the oceans became acidified in a similar way about 55 million years ago, it resulted in a mass extinction of deep-sea marine organisms, especially those living in the sediments of the sea floor, which can be studied geologically through changes to rock formations, said Dr Andy Ridgwell of the University of Bristol. 'Unlike surface plankton dwelling in a variable habitat, organisms living deep down on the ocean floor are adapted to much more stable conditions. A rapid and severe geochemical change in their environment would make their survival precarious,' he said."

Methane Levels May See 'Runaway' Rise. By Michael McCarthy, The Independent, February 22, 2010. "Atmospheric levels of methane, the greenhouse gas which is much more powerful than carbon dioxide, have risen significantly for the last three years running... leading to fears that a major global-warming 'feedback' is beginning to kick in. For some time there has been concern that the vast amounts of methane, or 'natural gas', locked up in the frozen tundra of the Arctic could be released as the permafrost is melted by global warming. This would give a huge further impetus to climate change, an effect sometimes referred to as 'the methane time bomb'. This is because methane (CH4) is even more effective at retaining the Sun's heat in the atmosphere than CO2... Over a relatively short period, such as 20 years, CH4 has a global warming potential more than 60 times as powerful as CO2, although it decays more quickly.

"Now comes the first news that levels of methane in the atmosphere, which began rising in 2007 when an unprecedented heatwave in the Arctic caused a record shrinking of the sea ice, have continued to rise significantly through 2008 and 2009... There is a fear that rising temperatures may have started to activate the positive feedback mechanism. This would see higher atmospheric levels of the gas producing more warming, which in turn would release more methane, which would produce even further warming, and so on into an uncontrollable 'runaway' warming effect. This is believed to have happened at the end of the last Ice Age, causing a very rapid temperature rise in a matter of decades... The new figures were revealed at a major two-day conference [7/22-23] on greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, at the Royal Society in London. They were disclosed in a presentation by Professor Euan Nisbet, of Royal Holloway College of the University of London, and Dr Ed Dlugokencky of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado… Many climate scientists think that frozen Arctic tundra, like this at Sermermiut in Greenland, is a ticking time bomb in terms of global warming, because it holds vast amounts of methane, an immensely potent greenhouse gas. Over thousands of years the methane has accumulated under the ground at northern latitudes all around the world, and has effectively been taken out of circulation by the permafrost acting as an impermeable lid. But as the permafrost begins to melt in rising temperatures, the lid may open -- with potentially catastrophic results."

USGS Reports Dramatic Retreat of Ice Shelves in Southern Antarctic Peninsula. ClimateProgess, February 27, 2010. "The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reported Monday that 'every ice front in the southern part of the Antarctic Peninsula has been retreating overall from 1947 to 2009, with the most dramatic changes occurring since 1990.' The finding comes on the heels of the warmest January on record for the Southern Hemisphere. The USGS presented the findings in a map and a pamphlet, Coastal-Change and Glaciological Map of the Palmer Land Area, Antarctica: 1947-2009 [PDF, 32 pp]."

Dozens of Primate Species on the Brink of Extinction. By Marlowe Hood, AFP, February 17, 2010. "Seldom seen species of lemur, monkey and gorilla are among 25 primates facing near-certain extinction unless urgent measures are taken to protect them, according to a report [PDF, 92 pp] released on February 11. All told, close to half of the planet's 634 known primate species are to some degree threatened with dying out, said the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and other conservation and research groups. That percentage has risen quickly -- only three years ago the IUCN put the ratio of vulnerable primates at one third. 'Primates are among the most endangered of all vertebrate groups,' said Russell Mittermeier, head of the IUCN's primate specialist group. Of the top 25, five are on the island of Madagascar, six on the African continent, three in South America and 11 in Southeast Asia."

Climate Change Seen Bringing Bonanza for English Wine. By Jeremy Lovell, ClimateWire, February 18, 2010. "While British climate scientists are dueling with skeptics over evidence of global warming, winemakers here have been sampling some evidence of their own. Much of it tastes like champagne, and it seems to be rapidly improving. This century could see a river of new English wine if climate scientists are right in their predictions of rising global temperatures, with vines being grown possibly as far north as Scotland, and with the south of England possibly even becoming too hot, according to geologist and wine expert Richard Selley."

Saving the Amazon May be the Most Cost-Effective Way to Cut Emissions. By Margot Roosevelt, LATimes, February 21, 2010. "Governors of the Brazilian Amazon's nine states are pushing the U.S. and other industrial nations to invest in projects under rules known as REDD -- or Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation -- that are being designed through the auspices of the United Nations. Under pending legislation to cap greenhouse gases, the U.S. government would auction emission allowances, funneling as much as $3 billion from the annual proceeds into rain forest protection. U.S. companies facing carbon controls could meet part of their obligations by investing as much as $13 billion a year by 2020 to preserve forests.

"And several Amazon governors have signed agreements with California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to measure the carbon in their forests with the goal of selling carbon credits in California's cap-and-trade market, set to begin in 2012. The program would allow California businesses to use the credits to meet their emission caps, and thus funnel several hundred million dollars a year into tropical forest protection. The reason? Slash-and-burn deforestation accounts for about 15% of humanity's carbon dioxide emissions. Despite activists' efforts, forests have been disappearing at the rate of about 34 million acres a year for the last two decades. Globally, Indonesia and Brazil are the third- and fourth-largest emitters respectively of greenhouse gases, after China and the U.S., because of their breakneck pace of forest destruction.

"Saving the Amazon, Earth's largest tropical jungle, can be a cheaper and faster way to avoid greenhouse gas emissions than replacing coal-fired power plants with renewable energy or switching to electric cars -- although all such measures are considered necessary by climate experts.
President Obama acknowledged as much last fall. 'It is probably the most cost-effective way for us to address the issue of climate change, having . . . mechanisms in place to avoid further deforestation,' he said. Despite the failure to adopt a long-term climate treaty in Copenhagen last year, the U.S., along with Australia, Britain, France, Japan and Norway, promised $3.5 billion in fast-start funds to help preserve tropical forests. But if nations across Latin America, Africa and Asia are to guard their trees, they must first alleviate the poverty of 1.2 billion people who depend on forests for their livelihoods. Many of these developing nations, struggling economically, bristle at preaching from wealthier countries." See Amazon graphic and slide show.

Companies Fund Projects to Preserve Amazon Rain Forest. By Margot Roosevelt, LATimes, February 21, 2010. "Deep in the Amazon, in a village accessible only by boat, river dwellers for generations have survived off fish, sparse crops and nuts from the forest. Now they have a new resource: debit cards. 'If money increases, then life gets better,' said Deodato da Silva, 56, with a toothless grin as he peeled cassava under a mango tree. Families in Boa Frente receive $29 a month to spend in a town upriver. The village also has a new brick walkway, rainwater cisterns and a new school with solar panels and Internet access. In exchange, residents agree to protect the forest surrounding their plots instead of clearing more trees for farming or fuel. The windfall comes courtesy of Marriott International Inc., the $12-billion hotel chain. It is part of a complex -- and controversial -- plan to save the world's rain forests with the help of big business...

"Some environmental groups, including Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth, oppose the use of credits by corporations. Coal-fired power plants and other major emitters of greenhouse gases should clean up their own smokestacks, they contend, rather than be permitted to buy their way out of complying with emissions caps through forest credits that are difficult to quantify. But others believe that governments and charities alone won't be able to finance forest preservation. Norway has pledged $1 billion to Amazon projects, but tens of billions of dollars more would have to come through corporate trading once countries place firm caps on greenhouse gases. Meanwhile, U.S. climate legislation remains stalled in the Senate. If Congress fails to pass a bill this year, some of the first American corporate money could flow through California's cap-and-trade program, set to take effect in 2012. Delegations of California climate officials have visited Juma and other Amazon projects." Editor's Note: CCC shares with Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth the belief that major emitters should be required to clean up their own smokestacks no matter what.

Fog Fluctuations Could Threaten Giant Redwoods. By Christopher Joyce, NPR, February 23, 2010, audio and transcript. "The fog that chills Northern California summers and regularly buries the Golden Gate Bridge in a white cloud may be in decline. The California fog is a creature of a strange climate along the California coast... After looking at historical climate data for the region, Biologist James Johnstone from the University of California, found that the fog is diminishing. 'When you look at the evolution of that land temperature pattern,' he concludes, 'it strongly suggests that there's been maybe a 30 percent decline in fog frequency'... And that worries people who care about California's redwood trees. 'These forests take up to 30 or 40% of their water requirements a year from fog, here in what is essentially a Mediterranean climate,' says Ruskin Hartley. He runs a 90-year-old organization called Save the Redwoods, which helped fund the fog research... Johnstone's research appears in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Most scientists predict changes in temperature, rainfall and even ocean currents as the planet's climate warms. Johnstone says what ultimately happens to California's fog machine will depend a lot on how global climate change affects California."

Extensive 22-Year Field Project Finds Trees Growing Faster in Mid-Atlantic States. By David A. Fahrenhold, WashPost, February 20, 2010. "Jess Parker, a forest ecologist at the Smithsonian Institution, has spent the past 22 years on a research project so repetitive, so time-consuming, that it impresses even researchers with the patience to count tree rings. Since 1987, he and a group of volunteers have embraced thousands of trees, slipped a tape measure behind them, and wrapped it around to measure the trees' girth... He tracked about 50,000 trees on 55 plots between the Washington DC and the Chesapeake, typically returning every three years to measure them as they grew. His volunteers included an emergency room doctor in search of peace, trained scientists in search of a hobby and retirees following orders from their wives...

"Last year, when Parker analyzed the mountain of data his team had collected, he found something surprising: Their trees were adding bulk at a surprisingly fast rate. Parker said the best explanations for this all seemed to relate to climate change. Temperatures in the area have risen by three-tenths of a degree; the growing season has lengthened by 7.8 days; and the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen. All of those might speed up photosynthesis, the engine of tree growth. Which sounds, at first, like a good thing. It would appear that trees were helping more than expected to reduce the world's greenhouse gases, sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and using it to make leaves and branches.

"'The danger of that, of course, is that this can't go on forever,' said Kenneth Feeley, a professor at Florida International University. He meant that, even if there was enough carbon dioxide to support more fast growth, the trees would eventually run out of water or plant food. Their growth would slow down, and they would stop absorbing so much carbon. Other researchers, such as Feeley, say it wouldn't have been possible to notice this trend in the mid-Atlantic if Parker and his crew had not measured so many trees over so much time. This month, when Parker and his team published a paper on their work, it was received as a key piece of evidence about the ways that climate change could be having subtle but important effects on forests. Others have found similar growth in different parts of the world, as warmer weather and more carbon dioxide fuel tree growth. In the tropics, however, some studies have seemed to show trees growing more slowly: It might now be too hot for some trees there."