Earth Equity News

New Study Predicts Fewer, But More Intense, Hurricanes as Planet Warms. By Jim Loney, Reuters, May 19, 2008. "Fewer but more intense hurricanes may form in the Atlantic Ocean as the globe warms toward the end of this century, according to a new study that counters predictions of more frequent cyclones due to climate change. The study, published on Sunday in Nature Geoscience, adds fuel to a fierce scientific debate over whether human-produced greenhouse gases have contributed to a recent rise in hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin and whether tropical cyclones are becoming stronger. A simulation of Atlantic hurricane activity for the final decades of the century projected an 18% decrease in hurricanes and a 27% decrease in tropical storms, researchers at the [Commerce Department's]... Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in [Princeton,] New Jersey found. 'It does not support the notion that increasing greenhouse gases are causing a large increase in Atlantic hurricane or tropical storm frequency,' said Thomas Knutson, one of the study's authors... Knutson said a past study forecast a 4% rise in intensity for every 1-degree [Celsius] rise in sea temperature, but this latest study found a smaller rise of 1 to 2%. The researchers said their findings for the Atlantic basin would not necessarily apply to other ocean basins, in part because wind shear was not expected to rise elsewhere. Noting the debate among hurricane and climate researchers on the issue of global warming and hurricanes, Knutson said: 'We don't regard this as the last word on this topic.'" [For a critique of Knutson's study, see the post by Rasmus Benestad and Michael Mann of at RealClimate.org.]