Earth Equity News

Falling Global Fertility. Commentary, The Economist, October 29, 2009. "Fertility is falling and families are shrinking in places -- such as Brazil, Indonesia, and even parts of India -- that people think of as teeming with children. As our briefing shows, the fertility rate of half the world is now 2.1 or less -- the magic number that is consistent with a stable population and is usually called 'the replacement rate of fertility'. Sometime between 2020 and 2050 the world's fertility rate will fall below the global replacement rate... Today's fall in fertility is both very large and very fast. Poor countries are racing through the same demographic transition as rich ones... In some countries the speed of decline in the fertility rate has been astonishing. In Iran, it dropped from seven in 1984 to 1.9 in 2006 -- and to just 1.5 in Tehran. That is about as fast as social change can happen... The Malthusians are right that the world's population is still increasing and can do a lot more environmental damage before it peaks at just over 9 billion in 2050. That will certainly be the case if poor, fast-growing countries follow the economic trajectories of those in the rich world... Easier access to family planning, especially in Africa, could probably lower its expected peak from around 9 billion to perhaps 8.5 billion. Only Chinese-style coercion would bring it down much below that... If population policy can do little more to alleviate environmental damage, then the human race will have to rely on technology and governance to shift the world's economy towards cleaner growth... Falling fertility may be making poor people's lives better, but it cannot save the Earth. That lies in our own hands."