Earth Equity News

Scenarios for 2030 and the Choices We Make Today. AFP, October 13, 2008. "The challenge posed by climate change could be resolved by a peaceful switch to a low-carbon economy, or alternatively inflict stresses that could include war and desertification of swathes of the US and Australia, a think tank said on Monday. The provocative report is published by a British NGO, Forum for the Future, which carries out strategic analysis on sustainable development on behalf of business. It sketches a wide range of social consequences from today's global warming crisis, derived from published studies and consultations with more than 60 climate-change specialists. It is published in collaboration with the technology giant HP. 'What we do now could determine the fate of billions of people. These could be the most important years in history,' said Peter Madden, Forum for the Future's chief executive, explaining the point of the document. The study, Climate Futures [PDF, 76 pp], sees five possible scenarios for 2030: 1) ENERGY EFFICIENCY: A swift, peaceful transition to a consumerist economy where heat-trapping carbon emissions are low... 2) SERVICE TRANSFORMATION: Carbon pollution has become so dangerous that a hefty price is imposed on emissions. People share cars, washing machines and other products, and transport has become so expensive that international sports events are staged virtually, in cyber-space... 3) REDEFINING PROGRESS: After a decade-long global depression following the 2008 crash, governments keep a tight regulatory hand on the economy and encourage citizens to put greater priority on quality of life than making money... 4) ENVIRONMENTAL WAR ECONOMY: Efforts to craft a post-Kyoto Protocol climate pact beyond 2012 break down. The treaty is signed only in 2017, and lost time and worsening climate problems force governments to take extraordinary measures, placing their economies on a war footing to tackle greenhouse-gas emissions... 5) PROTECTIONIST WORLD: A post-Kyoto deal for 2012 collapses amid accusations of cheating and undeclared power stations. Countries launch go-it-alone strategies and fight wars over scarce resources. Mercenaries, fighting for nations and businesses, wage war over oil, gas and gold in the thawing Northwest Passage in the Arctic."