2010-08-27

In Weather Chaos, a Case for Global Warming. By Justin Gillis, NYTimes, August 15, 2010. "The floods battered Nashville, then Arkansas, then Oklahoma -- and were followed by a deluge in Pakistan that has upended the lives of 20 million people. The summer's heat waves baked the eastern United States, parts of Africa and eastern Asia, and above all Russia, which lost millions of acres of wheat and thousands of lives in a drought worse than any other in the historical record. Seemingly disconnected, these far-flung disasters are reviving the question of whether global warming is causing more weather extremes. The collective answer of the scientific community can be boiled down to a single word: probably... Theory suggests that a world warming up... will feature heavier rainstorms in summer, bigger snowstorms in winter, more intense droughts in at least some places and more record-breaking heat waves. Scientists and government reports say the statistical evidence shows that much of this is starting to happen…

"Thermometer measurements show that the earth has warmed by about 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit... For this January through July, average temperatures were the warmest on record, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported on August 13... In the United States these days, about two record highs are being set for every record low, telltale evidence that amid all the random variation of weather, the trend is toward a warmer climate… 'Global warming, ironically, can actually increase the amount of snow you get,' said Kevin Trenberth, head of climate analysis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. 'But it also means the snow season is shorter.' In general, the research suggests that global warming will worsen climate extremes across much of the planet. As in the United States, wet areas will get wetter, the scientists say, while dry areas get drier… Scientists say they expect stronger storms, in winter and summer, largely because of the physical principle that warmer air can hold more water vapor… 'It's not the right question to ask if this storm or that storm is due to global warming, or is it natural variability,' Dr. Trenberth said. 'Nowadays, there's always an element of both.'"

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