2010-12-17
Resource Scarcities and Climate Change Pose Concerns for Pentagon. By Thom Shanker, NYTimes, 12/12/10. “Countries thirst for oil, compete for minerals and confront climate change. The American military, with surprising allies, worries that these issues represent a new source of conflict. Intelligence institutions assume that the 21st century will be shaped not just by competitive economic growth, but also by disruptive scarcities… Now a new field of systematic study is opening within research centers, the Pentagon and intelligence institutions. It assumes that the 21st century will be shaped not just by competitive economic growth, but also by potentially disruptive scarcities -- depletion of minerals; desertification of land; pollution or overuse of water; weather changes that kill fish and farms. National security experts have begun to label such factors threats to “natural security” and to study them, often alongside environmental or advocacy groups. A basic question frames their thinking: What are the new relationships among resources, diplomacy, crisis and conflict?… Here are five scenarios, current or anticipated…”

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